Football Betting

Football Bulletin: Why Goals Might Be Scarce In The Capital This Weekend

Posted on by Mike

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

This weekend, we highlight two London based games where goals might be in short supply and neither match likely to feature prominently on Match of The Day. We also have some interesting stats on the Manchester Derby as well as suggested bet trends in Italy, France and Spain.

English Premier League

Arsenal vs. Stoke Under 2.5 match goals @ 2.11 SBO Bet.

Much has been written about Arsenal’s poor form this season, but they have won three out of four at home so far. Unlike their away games, they’ve also kept things very tight at the Emirates conceding just three goals and scoring just six. Furthermore, 11 of the last 20 Arsenal home games have had under 2.5 goals, while stoke have been -2.5 in 12/20. Arsenal are also ranked first for going under 2.5 goals against top half teams when at home. Continue reading →

How to spot when teams are over-performing

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading →

Will boring Villa scupper Man City's hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Will boring Villa scupper Man City’s hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Football Bulletin: Expect A Tevez-Less City To Block Out Villa

Posted on by Mike

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

This weekend, we start off with Man City, where despite the loss of Carlos Tevez, the stats suggest a fruitless time for their opponents Aston Villa.

English Premier League

Man City vs. Villa: Man City Win to Nil. 2.50 Blue Square/888.

Man City’s home form has been superb. They are unbeaten in twelve of the last thirteen games, winning ‘to nil’ in each of their last five. City have also managed to keep clean sheets in all of their last seven home games against top half teams. Villa on the other hand are yet to win away this season and have lost in 10/15 trips to top three finishers since 2006/2007. Aston Villa have the lowest number of shots on goal this season away with just 22 in total and only 8 of these have been on target. Continue reading →

Why high flying promoted & relegated teams are headed for a fall.

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Newly promoted Southampton are two points clear at the top of the Championship after 10 games, whilst fellow new boys Brighton and relegated West Ham are also in the top five. Further down the English football ladder both Preston and Crawley have got off to excellent starts and sit in the top three in League One and League Two respectively, whilst Braintree Town lie near the top of the Conference.

Elsewhere in Europe, four of the top five teams in the Spanish Segunda (their second division) are either promoted or relegated teams, whilst Brescia who dropped out of Serie A last year, occupy third in Serie B, and Eintracht Frankfurt and St Pauli have responded to their relegations to Bundesliga 2 with excellent starts.

How likely was this?

To anticipate these teams’ progress we have analysed other fast starting promoted and relegated teams across the three lower leagues in England, the Conference, and in Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga 2 since 2003/04. When assessing fast starting teams we have looked at teams that have averaged at least two points per game for either the first six of first 10 games. Continue reading →

Why high flying promoted & relegated teams are headed for a fall.

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Newly promoted Southampton are two points clear at the top of the Championship after 10 games, whilst fellow new boys Brighton and relegated West Ham are also in the top five. Further down the English football ladder both Preston and Crawley have got off to excellent starts and sit in the top three in League One and League Two respectively, whilst Braintree Town lie near the top of the Conference.

Elsewhere in Europe, four of the top five teams in the Spanish Segunda (their second division) are either promoted or relegated teams, whilst Brescia who dropped out of Serie A last year, occupy third in Serie B, and Eintracht Frankfurt and St Pauli have responded to their relegations to Bundesliga 2 with excellent starts.

How likely was this?

To anticipate these teams’ progress we have analysed other fast starting promoted and relegated teams across the three lower leagues in England, the Conference, and in Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga 2 since 2003/04. When assessing fast starting teams we have looked at teams that have averaged at least two points per game for either the first six of first 10 games. Continue reading →

Football Bulletin Special: The Strange Case of The Rooney Clan And the Red Carded Scouser

Posted on by Mike

In this special article, SBC Editor Greg Gordon unpacks the current betting scandal surrounding the Wayne Rooney Clan and suggests that there are a number of high profile Scousers badly in need of some professional betting advice and perhaps even an SBC membership…

At various times in his career, Motherwell midfielder Steve Jennings will doubtless have been warned about the perils of drawing attention to himself through the company he keeps.

He will surely learn the wisdom of that advice over the next few days as his error of judgement becomes a major international news story, thanks to the involvement of Wayne Rooney’s father and uncle, in what can only be described as one of the most cack-handed betting scams in history. Continue reading →

Football Bulletin: Expect cards-a-plenty at Goodison, but goals might be missing

Posted on by Mike

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

So far the suggested bets have made a small profit of £1.80 from £50 stakes.

This weekend, we start off with the big clash of the weekend at Goodison Park as Kenny Dalglish takes a Liverpool team back to Anfield for the first time in 20 years. Continue reading →

Should You Bet On Cards For A Dirty Derby?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Many supporters see derby matches as the biggest games of the season, which are often wrought with competitiveness and intensity. Unsurprisingly, spread betting firms and bookmakers will raise their usual buy-sell prices by anything up to 20 points, but should they?

The Premier League has the lowest number of bookings per game than any of the other top divisions in Europe. Over the past eight seasons the average game has seen 3.10 yellow cards and 0.16 red cards (or 35.1 booking points). In contrast La Liga games have averaged a whopping 61.0 booking points since the start of the 2003/04 season, with 5.2 yellow and 0.35 red cards per game. Continue reading →