To celebrate the release of our Ultimate Football Betting Package, we are also today revealing the Top 11 essential tips to help improve your betting this season as shared by a selection of leading football experts that we monitor here at SBC. Continue reading
Football Betting
SBC’s Top Football Tips to Improve Your Betting This Season
To celebrate the release of our Ultimate Football Betting Package, we are also today revealing the Top 11 essential tips to help improve your betting this season as shared by a selection of leading football experts that we monitor here at SBC. Continue reading
Dark horses, sleepers and teams to avoid this football season
Today we released SBC’s Essential Guide to Football Betting stacked with free systems, tipster and analysis for the 2011/2012 football season.
We couldn’t fit all this content in a single edition, so as a special bonus we have made available one of the sections for all to read.
Editor in chief Greg Gordon asked a selection of the football experts that we monitor to provide some ideas on dark horses, sleepers and teams to avoid in this coming football season….
Dark Horses, Sleepers and Teams To Avoid
Having covered The Premiership, We set our caucus of top tipsters the onerous task of unearthing value bets hidden with the morass of Europe’s football markets.
Here is our rundown of the best long-term wagers on offer, those teams to oppose and teams we should side with.
England
Like Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, Greg Gordon of Scottish Football Bets, and Phil Brown of Betting Laying Club have taken a shine to Brighton.
Phil Says: “I feel Brighton under the guidance of Gus Poyet will give the Championship a real go this season at 20/1 and expect their big signing Mackail-Smith to score plenty of goals.” Continue reading
Football Betting: The State of the Nation
In this special blog posting, SBC Editor Greg Gordon, himself a scout and proven football tipster from the Scottish leagues as well as a deep thinker on the sport helps examine the state of the modern game from a betting and tipping perspective.
Where We’ve Been
As Sir Alex Ferguson might say: “Football, bloody hell!” Another season over but after 10 months where the front page coverage dominated the back pages it’s a hard one to weigh up.
Amidst Rooney-gate and ref strikes, mail bombs and super injunctions occasionally some football did actually break out.
Barcelona confirmed their pre-eminence in the world game with a panache no-one else will likely match, for as long as the Catalonians’ retain their focus.
Elsewhere winners appeared to emerge almost by default and it wasn’t just some leading tipsters who endured a season of two distinct halves.
In The Bundesliga virtually every club changed their manager at some stage – contributing nothing to a muddling competition that was as dull in the second half as it had been exhilaratingly car crash before the winter shutdown. After losing The Carling Cup final, Arsenal’s points-per-game total thereafter put them in 14th – below Wigan, Wolves and Blackburn as they ‘earned’ another fourth placed finish from a season that had intermittently promised more.
How To Bet On Corners
We wanted to share an excellent article written by Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman service back on January 10th about betting on corners in the English Premier League. He regularly advises bets in this market for his subscribers and uses his own research and stats on this market to pick out value bets that the bookmakers offer.
If you are looking to make money betting, you could do a lot worse than specialise in such a market, or follow an expert like Scott!. There are plenty such experts in our Smart Betting Club Hall of Fame.
Over to Scott and his corner market analysis of the action just a few weeks ago…
A return to looking at Premier League sides corners statistics this week as I pinpoint some recurring areas to look for profit. 11.5 is the line I am using for the over’s and under’s corners mark. Tottenham with the marauding Gareth Bale are proving to be Kings of the over’s. In 16 Premier League matches Spurs have gone over on 11 occasions, a 69% strike rate. They are especially prevalent at home with 6 from 7 League matches at the Lane going over. Conversely there’s not a great deal of corner action at the DW stadium where all 9 of Wigan’s home matches have went under 11.5 corners.
With half the season almost gone in the Premier League it looks safe to say that Wolves tremendous corners record is not merely a freak occurrence. With 16 matches played the team who sit 2nd bottom of the league have gained corners supremacy in 8 games, drawn 6 and lost just 2. The best way to make a profit from this knowledge looks to be to play them gaining a corners handicap against the League’s elite sides. At Stamford Bridge they drew with Chelsea on the corner count 8-8. Away to Manchester United they lost only 2-3 and at home to Arsenal they out cornered the League leaders 5-3.
Two teams to oppose on corners markets are Blackpool and Blackburn. Blackpool love an open match although their total match corners have not been particularly high. From 15 matches they have only won corners supremacy 4 times and have particularly struggled at Bloomfield Road gaining most corners in only 1 match from 6.
Of the promoted sides West Bromwich Albion with the likes of Chris Brunt and Graham Dorrans are faring best when it comes to racking up corners winning corners supremacy in 7 matches from 8 a 88% strike rate.
Bets to look out for: Spurs over the 11.5 corners line at around 10/11. Wigan under 10.5 corners around evens at the DW and Wolves on the corners handicap +4 against the elite sides in the league at evens/11-10. Oppose Blackpool at home on the corners count and side with West Brom corner supremacy at home.
This is just one excellent niche betting strategy that many of the recommended tipsters we feature at the Smart Betting Club help to make money.
The Sportsman's Weekend Wager Article
This weeks column from Scott of The Sportsman service came in a bit too late to appear in Fridays Weekend Wager email so we have posted it below. Enjoy!
“Play Your Cards Right”
A huge game within the context of Scottish football takes place in Glasgow this weekend as Celtic and Rangers put their 100% league winning records on the line.
The layers are going to make few if any mistakes in a big match like this as they will have covered all bases but let’s see if any angle can be found for profit. Match prices are the first starting point. As far as I know and contrary to popular folklore the layers don’t offer different prices in Glasgow shops depending on what side of the city you reside in. Celtic I had pencilled in at 6-4 and they are a little shorter at a best current price of 11-8. The surprise for me is that Rangers are available at 5-2 in place. A slice of that price could find you in an advantageous trading position especially after the away sides decent performance midweek against Valencia.
Just two matches out of the last eleven have finished 0-0 and if you fancy goals to be scored one avenue to consider is laying 0-0 at half time around 2.2 if you can obtain that price. With regards to the overs and under’s the last 14 matches have generated only 31 goals, an average of 2.21 per match. The one area I will be keen to see prices on is the bookings market. I would suggest if you can get over 55 booking points on any bookmakers who price up early at around evens then you have found yourself value.
In the Glasgow area this match has the feeling of the biggest match between the two for years – a powder-keg ready to explode. The average total bookings points over three seasons at Celtic Park is 84. It’s notable over the same time period that Rangers have picked up most bookings in all six matches averaging 55 bookings points to Celtic’s 29 – quite a difference. Player to be booked anytime is also worthy of consideration and David Weir, Rangers captain has been booked in three of the six matches he has played in, making him around an even money chance, Skybet go 9-4.For a bigger price Rangers striker Steven Naismith has been cautioned three times at Celtic Park in the three matches he has participated in over the last three seasons. He has got to be worth a shot of going in the book again at 11-2.
Match arbiter Willie Collum has not refereed any Old Firm match within the time period looked at, but this season in the SPL has issued an average of 38.75 bookings points including eight yellows in the game between St Mirren and Hamilton so can be handy with his cards. At this stage then bets to look out for are bookings points totals, the away side to collect bookings supremacy and smaller plays on Weir and Naismith of Rangers going in the book.
Recommended to Sportsman members:- 0.05 pts Naismith booked anytime @ 11-2 & 0.05 pts Weir booked anytime @ 9-4 with Skybet. Look out for other layers prices going up as undoubtedly Skybet won’t stand those odds.
The Sportsman’s Weekend Wager Article
This weeks column from Scott of The Sportsman service came in a bit too late to appear in Fridays Weekend Wager email so we have posted it below. Enjoy!
“Play Your Cards Right”
A huge game within the context of Scottish football takes place in Glasgow this weekend as Celtic and Rangers put their 100% league winning records on the line.
The layers are going to make few if any mistakes in a big match like this as they will have covered all bases but let’s see if any angle can be found for profit. Match prices are the first starting point. As far as I know and contrary to popular folklore the layers don’t offer different prices in Glasgow shops depending on what side of the city you reside in. Celtic I had pencilled in at 6-4 and they are a little shorter at a best current price of 11-8. The surprise for me is that Rangers are available at 5-2 in place. A slice of that price could find you in an advantageous trading position especially after the away sides decent performance midweek against Valencia.
Just two matches out of the last eleven have finished 0-0 and if you fancy goals to be scored one avenue to consider is laying 0-0 at half time around 2.2 if you can obtain that price. With regards to the overs and under’s the last 14 matches have generated only 31 goals, an average of 2.21 per match. The one area I will be keen to see prices on is the bookings market. I would suggest if you can get over 55 booking points on any bookmakers who price up early at around evens then you have found yourself value.
In the Glasgow area this match has the feeling of the biggest match between the two for years – a powder-keg ready to explode. The average total bookings points over three seasons at Celtic Park is 84. It’s notable over the same time period that Rangers have picked up most bookings in all six matches averaging 55 bookings points to Celtic’s 29 – quite a difference. Player to be booked anytime is also worthy of consideration and David Weir, Rangers captain has been booked in three of the six matches he has played in, making him around an even money chance, Skybet go 9-4.For a bigger price Rangers striker Steven Naismith has been cautioned three times at Celtic Park in the three matches he has participated in over the last three seasons. He has got to be worth a shot of going in the book again at 11-2.
Match arbiter Willie Collum has not refereed any Old Firm match within the time period looked at, but this season in the SPL has issued an average of 38.75 bookings points including eight yellows in the game between St Mirren and Hamilton so can be handy with his cards. At this stage then bets to look out for are bookings points totals, the away side to collect bookings supremacy and smaller plays on Weir and Naismith of Rangers going in the book.
Recommended to Sportsman members:- 0.05 pts Naismith booked anytime @ 11-2 & 0.05 pts Weir booked anytime @ 9-4 with Skybet. Look out for other layers prices going up as undoubtedly Skybet won’t stand those odds.
A Great Start To The Football Tipster Season
With the international football weekend, it’s a good chance to have a good long look at the performance so far this season from some of the best football tipsters that we monitor here at SBC.
We currently recommend 5 different football tipster services in our Hall of Fame, with a further 2 services that are bubbling under this level. A Hall of Fame ranking effectively means we give that service a full recommendation as one to join and follow with your own money.
Our ratings are all judged over the long-term so you can be assured that this is no flash in the pan performance! We also take into account the ease of following any service and other aspects such as cost, odds availability and customer service.
So with all that in mind….the big question is how have our best rated football tipsters performed so far this season?
The answer is …very well!
Our 5 Hall of Fame tipsters combined (Services 1 through to 5) have been going great guns with 4 of them steaming ahead with ROI figures of over 17%. Only Service 5 has had a slow start although with only 14 bets so far this season, it’s very early days for them!
The other services (6 and 7) have also been performing well, with each making a very decent profit.
Check out the table below for the performance for 7 of our best football tipsters since July this year. At Just £50 stakes per service, you would already be £5109 up!
(Please note – the actual names of each tipster have been protected and are available to full SBC members only).
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How Does This Compare To Previous Seasons?
Now if you are like me and take a lot of convincing when it comes to stats, you are probably asking….Sure that looks great, but how did they do before this season? What do the long-term stats say?
After all, we have all seen how politicians use and abuse statistics to prove a point, backed up by the classic quote “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics”.
Well I can assure you that our best football tipsters are so chosen because they have kept up their form over many seasons. As we report back to all members on the latest stats each month in our monthly Smart Betting Club issue, you can be assured as well there is no Bernie Madoff style manipulation going on here!
To help prove the point that each of these tipsters also has performed well long-term, check out the table below listing their results from last season.
As you can see, over the course of the 2009/2010 full season, each of these tipsters made a large profit to a very good standard. The combined return was 360 pts, which at simple £50 stakes would have made you a £18,026.50 profit. The excellent start seen so far this season is definitely no flash in the pan!
How You Can Benefit
Many of the football tipsters listed here are followed by numerous SBC members who have benefitted from the reports and stats we provide to them each month.
We also know each of these tipsters are good as we place thousands of pounds ourselves each weekend following them too. We always put our money where our mouth is.
If you are keen to get started on your profitable betting walk, then these football tipsters provide a great place to start.
If you want to know more, including full reviews of each service and regular reports on their ongoing progress consider a full Smart Betting Club membership. By joining today you can get yourself set-up and following these experts in no time at all.
Will Chelsea miss Lampard?
Frank Lampard out for 2 weeks, missing the big London Derby against Arsenal this weekend. The question – is how this will impact Chelsea?
It’s a hard one to answer with Lampard having an attendance record that would make the school swot Cuthbert Cringeworthy green with envy. Still, there are some interesting statistics available from the 29 games he’s missed since 2005.
Using stats tools from http://www.bettorlogic.com/ we can put some actual numbers on the board.
Since 2005, Chelsea have won 69% of their games with an average of 2.26 points per game.
Here’s the split for when Lamps is playing/ not playing:
Lamps played: Chelsea win 70% of games with an average of 2.29 points per game.
Lamps not played: Chelsea win 62% of games with an average of 2.10 points per game.
So Chelsea are indeed slightly worse off without Lampard; their win rate and average points per game drops without him.
Some of the absences above might have been when Lampard was rested against lesser opposition, so what if we isolate Chelsea’s record against top half teams only?
Now we get:
Lamps played: Chelsea win 68% of games with an average of 2.20 points per game.
Lamps not played: Chelsea win 38% of games with an average of 1.54 points per game.
Lampard missed just 13 of these 92 games but it still gives you an idea of his impact.
Overall the stats show that Chelsea are unlikely to fall to pieces without Lamps this weekend, but I’d want more than the 1.78 on offer for a Chelsea win against Arsenal, even after last week’s shock defeat to West Brom. Arsenal had 12 shots on target to the Baggies’ 5 in that game and Chelsea have just a 50% win rate against top 4 teams since 2005. I’d be looking for a price nearer 2.0 on the Chelsea win.
Dan Jones
Football Over-Reactions and How to Benefit From Them
The few days after the first weekend of the football season are always a fascinating time to observe some of the over-reactions that the football betting markets take after just 1 round of games.
Its often a time like no other as a single result such as Wigan’s thumping by Blackpool has a much bigger impact on their odds in certain markets than at most other times during the season (the final few months excepted).
These over-reactions can be a very good thing though as this in turn can open up some interesting looking value bets if you know what your looking for.
Everyone Has To Eat
Its fair to ask just why we see such over-reactions in odds so soon? Well I put it down to the hyped up nonsense we read and hear in the media. Most reporters understand a season is 38 games long and so a team should be judged over the long-term, but then constantly writing this doesn’t sell them newspapers. Everyone has to eat after all! Therefore they often find a story and blow it out of proportion and voila, there is a knock-on effect with bookies and punters. Thats not to say that everything we read and hear is reactionary and untrue but with a shrewd approach you can pick out the wheat from the chaff and potentially benefit from this.
To give an example, lets look at Wigan’s defeat by Blackpool, which was very a poor performance from the home team admittedly. If taking a different approach you may wish to consider how Wigan have been very inconsistent and ended last season with a 8-2 thrashing yet were taking on a side with fantastic momentum from last season. Call this the ‘Burnley’ effect if you will as they beat both Man United and Everton in the first 2 home games last season – where are they now?
Contrast Wigan then with a team like Wolves who had a good start beating Stoke 2-1 at home. How would you judge these 2 teams (Wigan and Wolves) in a season match bet today?
Well Victor Chandler have an market offering such a Wolves – Wigan season match bet and before Saturdays game, both teams were priced at 5/6. Following Saturday’s games, you can now pick up Wigan at 6/5 whilst Wolves are as short as 8/13.
That’s one heck of a drift for Wigan who last season finished only 2 points behind Wolves. Can so much be taken from just 1 game and is this an over-reaction? My spidy senses tell me so!
Relegation Odds
There are plenty of other areas where we see significant changes simply based upon one game such as the popular relegation market. The aforementioned Wigan were as big as 9/4 before Saturday’s game but now have been slashed into 11/8. Similarly a team such as West Ham have gone from 11/2 to 9/2 after their 3-0 defeat away to Aston Villa.
Next weekend we will see even more changes and movement in odds especially if we see yet more freakish results like in the Wigan – Blackpool game.
I firmly believe that value can be found in these kind of markets if you dig around and take a sensible long-term view in these first few weeks. Good luck if getting involved in these kind of bets and do drop us a line either via email or on the forum if you are.